1. Avoid Holliday. As good as his stats may be, he is not worth the money. First of all, his tenure in Oakland was nothing to write home
about. An .832 OPS is more indicative of his performance in the AL instead of the insane 1.023 OPS with the Cardinals, in a weaker division and league. Also,
he was horribly exposed in the NLDS. Of the 36 pitches he saw, 34 were inside fastballs. He hit one homerun, on you guessed it...a curveball. Considering the
money he's going to command, would you rather have Damon AND Matsui short term or Holliday long-term? Let the Cardinals and Mets fight it out. Plus, with
Arod, you need a lefty to even it out. Considering he will command a long-term contract, let him go back to the Cardinals or to the Mets, or as a suprise, the
Giants. I doubt the Red Sox are dumb enough to take him on.
2. Resign Molina. 2 years/$4M. This may be the most important move the Yankees make. Posada was exposed as being an absolutely terrible defensive catcher. Anyone who watched Game Six of the World Series objectively was outright disgusted by how terrible he is behind the plate. Molina ended the season with a CERA that was a run and a half lower than Posada. His lack of framing nearly destroyed Pettitte. He still has a decent arm, but how many times does someone try to steal? It's all about the pitching, stupid. The Yankees beat the Phillies with nearly no production whatsoever from 1/3 of their lineup. Cervelli is decent, but could use another year of seasoning. The Yankees have too much money invested in pitching to NOT sign Molina.
3. Resign Damon. Two years/$18M. Abreu set the standard, which is going to be fair. Ideally, I would like to see a one year deal, but it won't get done with Boras. If he balks, let him walk. After playing the first few years in KC, then going to Oakland during their heyday, then the Red Sox and then the Yankees...I can't see him going to a middling team. This is tough because of Boras. A take it or leave it offer. His home/away splits are putrid, he is a by-product of Yankee Stadium...but since we play half of our games in Yankee Stadium, it's beneficial. Offer him arbitration and hope he takes it. One year at $13 million would be a Godsend. Then the Yankees can look to Carl Crawford next season as they are only on the hook for one year. If he rejects it and they can't work out a deal, we got two draft picks.
4. Resign Matsui. One year/$7 million. A professional hitter with the ability to hit lefties and righties, his market is limited as there are many DHs on the market. Winning is it's own drug, and the reality is we're starting to see what we saw in the 90's...players WANTING to play in New York. Winning does that for you.
5. Resign Pettitte. One year/$12 million. Pettitte will pretty much go year to year at this point. I don't think he will retire, he still has the ability to pitch effectively. He wants to come back, and the Yankees want him back.
6. Sign John Lackey. 6 years/$100 million. Throw the kitchen sink at this guy. His numbers are comparable to AJ Burnett, and he should command about the same amount of money. A quartet of CC, Lackey, AJ and Pettitte and we can book another trip to October.
7. Non-tender Wang, but bring him back. One year/$3 million. You can never have enough pitching. With four spots wrapped up, you leave a spring training competition between Hughes, Chamberlain, and Wang for number five, with the two losers going to the pen. I am of the belief that the 5th spot should always be a competition in the hope of catching lightning in a bottle. Plus, it will allow Girardi to stretch out the pitchers so they can save their arms for the post-season. This was the reason for going three deep in the playoffs.
Where does that leave us salary-wise? Molina is a wash, and so is Pettitte for the most part. Wang saves you a couple million. You save $6 million on Matsui, $4 million on Damon, and $5 million on Nady. That means saving a few million and getting Lackey. Not only that, but Nady projects to be a Type A...so you don't even lose draft picks by signing Lackey.
The bullpen is unchanged. Cashman has assembled a bunch of pitchers who are interchangeable that there is no reason to go outside of the organization. Let Giradi figure out what to do with Marte, Coke, Aceves, Gaudin, Chamberlain/Hughes or both, Robertson, Kennedy, Bruney et. al.
This leaves a LOT of roster flexibility. Let's face it...this is an older team. Their core players are all on the wrong side of 35. Sooner or later, these players will start to decline. Jeter quieted his critics by turning back the clock defensively. Arod rebounded. Posada will continue his decline into oblivion. I fully expect Posada to catch a pitch next year, throw his glove down, and stomp on it. His contract the next two years will hamstring the Yankees. Mariano defies the odds, and is quite possibly the most amazing pitcher I've ever seen.
Most fans will see things as continuing. Father Time has a say in this. The Yankee players under 30 are nothing to write home about. Cashman has to manage the money until some of his players, the Jacksons and Monteros are ready. The Yankees cannot afford any more long-term deals. Short term deals at a higher AAV is a better risk.
A lesson to be learned from the Red Sox this year. They went into the season looking like they had a pitching surplus. It was a deficit by the end of the year.
Burnett, Joba, Wang, Hughes, and Pettitte have had injury issues. I wouldn't be surprised if all of them played an important role. I also wouldn't be surprised if all of them got injured. Let's face it...when it came to injuries to their staff, the Yankees were INCREDIBLY lucky this year.
Next year is the key. With the probably emergence of Austin Jackson, and the free agency of Carl Crawford, we could see two if not three changes in the OF.
I am a huge Crawford fan. With the excess in the pen, look to the Yankees to possibly package Melky with some of their surplus pitching to Tampa for Crawford and throwing him in CF. Gardner is not a major league hitter, and Melky is a weak stick as it is. Putting Gardner in there as well makes them a very weak team at the end of the lineup.
Cashman has done a good job in accumulating assets. This would allow him to use some of these chips in a deadline deal or to replace those that need replacing, and at a very low cost.
End result: Salary wash or slight decrease. Lackey replaces Gaudin.
2. Resign Molina. 2 years/$4M. This may be the most important move the Yankees make. Posada was exposed as being an absolutely terrible defensive catcher. Anyone who watched Game Six of the World Series objectively was outright disgusted by how terrible he is behind the plate. Molina ended the season with a CERA that was a run and a half lower than Posada. His lack of framing nearly destroyed Pettitte. He still has a decent arm, but how many times does someone try to steal? It's all about the pitching, stupid. The Yankees beat the Phillies with nearly no production whatsoever from 1/3 of their lineup. Cervelli is decent, but could use another year of seasoning. The Yankees have too much money invested in pitching to NOT sign Molina.
3. Resign Damon. Two years/$18M. Abreu set the standard, which is going to be fair. Ideally, I would like to see a one year deal, but it won't get done with Boras. If he balks, let him walk. After playing the first few years in KC, then going to Oakland during their heyday, then the Red Sox and then the Yankees...I can't see him going to a middling team. This is tough because of Boras. A take it or leave it offer. His home/away splits are putrid, he is a by-product of Yankee Stadium...but since we play half of our games in Yankee Stadium, it's beneficial. Offer him arbitration and hope he takes it. One year at $13 million would be a Godsend. Then the Yankees can look to Carl Crawford next season as they are only on the hook for one year. If he rejects it and they can't work out a deal, we got two draft picks.
4. Resign Matsui. One year/$7 million. A professional hitter with the ability to hit lefties and righties, his market is limited as there are many DHs on the market. Winning is it's own drug, and the reality is we're starting to see what we saw in the 90's...players WANTING to play in New York. Winning does that for you.
5. Resign Pettitte. One year/$12 million. Pettitte will pretty much go year to year at this point. I don't think he will retire, he still has the ability to pitch effectively. He wants to come back, and the Yankees want him back.
6. Sign John Lackey. 6 years/$100 million. Throw the kitchen sink at this guy. His numbers are comparable to AJ Burnett, and he should command about the same amount of money. A quartet of CC, Lackey, AJ and Pettitte and we can book another trip to October.
7. Non-tender Wang, but bring him back. One year/$3 million. You can never have enough pitching. With four spots wrapped up, you leave a spring training competition between Hughes, Chamberlain, and Wang for number five, with the two losers going to the pen. I am of the belief that the 5th spot should always be a competition in the hope of catching lightning in a bottle. Plus, it will allow Girardi to stretch out the pitchers so they can save their arms for the post-season. This was the reason for going three deep in the playoffs.
Where does that leave us salary-wise? Molina is a wash, and so is Pettitte for the most part. Wang saves you a couple million. You save $6 million on Matsui, $4 million on Damon, and $5 million on Nady. That means saving a few million and getting Lackey. Not only that, but Nady projects to be a Type A...so you don't even lose draft picks by signing Lackey.
The bullpen is unchanged. Cashman has assembled a bunch of pitchers who are interchangeable that there is no reason to go outside of the organization. Let Giradi figure out what to do with Marte, Coke, Aceves, Gaudin, Chamberlain/Hughes or both, Robertson, Kennedy, Bruney et. al.
This leaves a LOT of roster flexibility. Let's face it...this is an older team. Their core players are all on the wrong side of 35. Sooner or later, these players will start to decline. Jeter quieted his critics by turning back the clock defensively. Arod rebounded. Posada will continue his decline into oblivion. I fully expect Posada to catch a pitch next year, throw his glove down, and stomp on it. His contract the next two years will hamstring the Yankees. Mariano defies the odds, and is quite possibly the most amazing pitcher I've ever seen.
Most fans will see things as continuing. Father Time has a say in this. The Yankee players under 30 are nothing to write home about. Cashman has to manage the money until some of his players, the Jacksons and Monteros are ready. The Yankees cannot afford any more long-term deals. Short term deals at a higher AAV is a better risk.
A lesson to be learned from the Red Sox this year. They went into the season looking like they had a pitching surplus. It was a deficit by the end of the year.
Burnett, Joba, Wang, Hughes, and Pettitte have had injury issues. I wouldn't be surprised if all of them played an important role. I also wouldn't be surprised if all of them got injured. Let's face it...when it came to injuries to their staff, the Yankees were INCREDIBLY lucky this year.
Next year is the key. With the probably emergence of Austin Jackson, and the free agency of Carl Crawford, we could see two if not three changes in the OF.
I am a huge Crawford fan. With the excess in the pen, look to the Yankees to possibly package Melky with some of their surplus pitching to Tampa for Crawford and throwing him in CF. Gardner is not a major league hitter, and Melky is a weak stick as it is. Putting Gardner in there as well makes them a very weak team at the end of the lineup.
Cashman has done a good job in accumulating assets. This would allow him to use some of these chips in a deadline deal or to replace those that need replacing, and at a very low cost.
End result: Salary wash or slight decrease. Lackey replaces Gaudin.
